The start of a new year is a great time to reflect on the past, set goals for the future, and tune out predictions from the financial industry.

The S&P 500 Index rose by 23.3% in 2024. This far exceeded expectations from analysts polled at the end of 2023, none of whom believed the S&P would grow by its historical average rate of return, 12.3%. In fact, nearly half of the analysts predicted a negative year for the index. Hopefully those analysts didn’t eat their own cooking and divest from US stocks during such a strong year.

The dispersion in predictions for 2024 highlights the challenge with making asset allocation decisions based on forecasts. Individuals arrive at different expectations because they may see the world differently. The market aggregates these disparate viewpoints, offering a wisdom of the crowd that’s very difficult to beat.

List of Analyst Predictions

1. Price-only return.

2. Based on actual S&P 500 Index average annual total return from 1927–2024.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 

In USD. Source: Bloomberg, using the “Strategists S&P 500 Index Estimates for Year-End 2024” as of December 19, 2023.

Analyst forecasts and 2024 return are price returns.

S&P data © 2025 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio

The original version of this article has been reprinted with permission and was written by Wes Crill, PhD Senior Investment Director and Vice President of Dimensional Funds Advisors

This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information and provided by Dimensional Fund Advisors. Please consult legal, finance or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.